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“No one knows how to define progress in such a mixed-up situation.” And so began a U.S. congressman’s proposal to use stock market techniques to measure war progress.

As seen in Part 1, from the Constitution to the beginning of television to the latest headlines, Americans need progress. Or something that looks like it.

The congressman found it in the Iraq Index. This includes rates of monthly car-bombs, foreign nationals’ kidnappings, and things like the number of Iraqis with electricity and Internet access. The politico said, simplify this for Congress, and we all could use it to measure progress. “It would be like the Dow Jones” Industrial Average, he said. “Nobody accuses the Dow Jones of being biased.”

Wait a moment. Look at the Dow Jones average. It too works on an inconstant target.

When first published in 1896, the Dow Jones represented an average from twelve stocks of American industries. Now it represents 30, and includes only one from the original group. Coincidentally that’s General Electric.

Rely on an index? A simpler example than the stock market shows the risks of this. Even a number that seems as clearcut as the murder rate can be cooked.

New York detectives interviewed for my book, Catching Homicide, told me that one year end city hall was under pressure to reduce the murder rate. They did this by simply counting incidents of murder rather than dead bodies. If several people were killed in a single event, these were tallied as 1. And the official murder rate dropped.

Like words, any index sometimes (to quote Humpty Dumpty in Through the Looking-Glass) “means just what I choose it to mean”.

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But the president’s mantra, not an index, remained in play. Wearing thin from daily recitations, again and again it was inserted into his statements.
“Iraq has made incredible political progress”
“We have seen encouraging progress”
“We’re seeing progress on the ground”
“I’m encouraged by the progress”

If any chance for the American side getting a handle on Iraq exists, it might not lie in an index. Already one military official is reported saying in Baghdad that progress is “not going to be a thumbs up or down. There will be lots of areas of gray.” Perhaps his words just reflect institutional thinking, but they show that any index of progress will be disputed.

And that brings us back to this special word. What will happen to “progress”? The term still conjures feelings of strength and security among many. And the president keeps using it:
“American and Iraqi forces have made substantial progress”
“We’re beginning to see some signs of progress”
“We’re making progress toward peace”
“We’re making progress toward that goal”

How long will he continue? Many call this president determined or disconnected. Now only the odds-makers can guess how long he’ll persist.

At this point the executive branch image-makers might look at the company most successful in the use of this word. Multinational General Electric eventually dropped their long-running slogan, “Progress is our most important product”, and ultimately adopted the less assertive, “Imagination at work”.

For now though, even as circumstances in Iraq and Washington change daily, one thing continues unchanged. From the White House you can still hear the mantra:
“We’re making progress.”

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